Address to the Presidents of Finland and the Russian Federation by participants of the 4th annual Finnish-Russian Civic Forum, FINROSFORUM 2010

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"We are not a member of the EU, but we are a European country," said Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in an interview with Western journalists on the eve of the G-20 summit and a key meeting with President Barack Obama in Toronto. His words are worth thinking about.

The Russia we know today has been looking for its place in the world ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union 20 years ago. Stripped of the shell of Soviet empire, the country’s identity has been in flux. The search is at once geopolitical, philosophical and profoundly psychological.

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The global financial crisis has hit Russia hard. The country’s gross domestic product declined almost 9 percent in 2009, and income from energy sales have dropped sharply. Inflation and unemployment are both rising, and the number of anti-government protests is increasing across the country. Against this background, Medvedev has sought to highlight the need for a thorough political and economic modernization of Russia. He has described Russia as "a primitive and chronically corrupt economy based on raw materials" and fixated on the old habit of relying on the state to solve its problems.

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Lack of hard evidence, boilerplate answers from Russian envoys and poor follow-up have seen EU-Russia human rights talks add up to little more than diplomats getting to know each other. EU delegates at the 11th EU-Russia "human rights consultations," held in Brussels on 28 April 2010, gave the Russian side a list of needling questions about 31 individual cases, including big names such as oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky and anti-fraud lawyer Sergei Magnitsky, as well as several hardly-known victims. The union did not receive any real answers to its queries in April and it does not expect to receive any at the 12th round of talks under the upcoming Belgian EU presidency. "We have never learned anything we did not know already," an EU contact said.

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What most people in the EU mean by modernisation is very different from the notion held by the Russian leadership. Russia’s concept of modernisation is state-led and project-focused: a state-financed nanotechnology institute, state-owned banks lending to selected sectors, a brand-new "innovation city" outside Moscow set up by government fiat -- these are the building blocks of Medvedev's innovation economy.

This approach cannot work. In today's global economy, picking winners is not something that governments can do. An innovative economy needs open markets, venture capital, free-thinking entrepreneurs, fast bankruptcy courts, and solid protection of intellectual property. Russia's business environment is characterised by wide-spread monopolies, ubiquitous corruption, stifling state-interferences, weak and contradictory laws.

The whole idea that Russia can shift from an economy that relies on oil, gas and heavy industry to a cutting-edge, high-tech one is spurious. Russia should first try to move existing industrial sectors up the value chain by using imported technology and know-how. Large-scale indigenous innovation may come later.

In short, Russian modernisation does not need vertical state intervention but a horizontal improvement of the business environment. It is doubtful whether the Russian leadership has the political will to clamp down on corruption, improve competition, reform the education and science sectors, and strengthen the rule of law.

The EU should ask itself, whether it should accept and support Russia's flawed concept of modernisation, or whether it should make support conditional on Russia implementing at least some of the reforms needed to strengthen the rule of law and improve the economy. In the past, EU attempts to cajole or persuade Russia to implement reforms have had limited or no impact. The modernisation partnership is unlikely to be very different.

In a confidential report, Russia outlined a shift toward a more pragmatic foreign policy aimed at building closer ties with the United States and Europe to help modernize its outdated industries. The program detailed a shift away from the more confrontational line the Kremlin had taken in past years. It singled out the Obama administration for praise for its more cooperative approach to Moscow. A Russian official confirmed the authenticity of the document, which was addressed to President Dmitry Medvedev by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. It was first reported by Russian Newsweek, which ran the document's full text on its website.

A Kremlin spokesman said the program has not been officially approved. But some elements, such as a deal with the US to reduce nuclear weapons, have already been implemented. Its spirit was reflected when US and European troops for the first time marched alongside Russian forces during Moscow's annual military parade marking the end of World War II. The report also includes insights into Moscow's relationships with former Soviet republics. It calls for taking advantage of the global financial crisis to acquire industrial and energy assets in the Baltics, Belarus, Ukraine and Central Asia -- all areas where Russian influence is a sensitive political issue.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703565804575238291897667152.html

Euroopan komission alainen tilastoyksikkö Eurostat julkaisi tiistaina vuoden 2009 pakolaistilastonsa. Eurooppaan tuli viime vuonna lähes 261 000 turvapaikanhakijaa; näistä lähes 48.000 Ranskaan. Kaiken kaikkiaan Venäjän Federaatiosta tulleiden turvapaikanhakijoiden määrä oli yli 20.000 henkilöä, eli toiseksi suurin määrä heti afgaanipakolaisten jälkeen.

Suomen osalta tilastot osoittavat huimaa nousua Venäjän federaatiosta tulleiden turvapaikanhakijoiden osalta. Pakolaisneuvonnan tilastoinnin mukaan Suomeen tuli turvapaikanhakijoita Venäjältä vuonna 2007 kaikkiaan 172 henkilöä, vuonna 2008 yhteensä 209 henkilöä, ja vuonna 2009 peräti 602 henkilöä.

Taustalla on Venäjän Federaation alueella yhä heikentyvä ihmisoikeustilanne, josta EU joutuu kantamaan oman vastuunsa. Tosin Venäjän maahanmuuttoviraston mukaan 44 % venäläisistä pakolaisista olisi muista IVY-maista tulleita venäjänkielisiä pakolaisia. Tämä väite ei ole kovin uskottava, sillä Eurostatin tilastointi rakentuu kansallisuuteen eikä kieleen. Kenties Venäjä ennakoi tulevaa historiankirjoitusta ja tilastoi jo tänään pohjoiskaukasialaiset ulkomaalaisiksi?

Lähteet: Eurostat, Pakolaisneuvonta, RIA Novosti

"Finland had no difficulty [in joining the Schengen Agreement], given that the Nordic countries had abolished the need for passports in cross-border travel back in 1952. The free movement of people is an integral part of the vision of the future that Finland strives towards as a member of the European Union," Mr Stubb wrote. "The question of simplified procedures for border crossing with Russia, our biggest neighbour, is especially important for Finland. [...] Finland wants a visa-free regime between the EU and Russia. We will do our utmost to reach this goal."

http://www.vedomosti.ru/newspaper/article/2010/03/09/227483

Venäjän ihmisoikeuspolitiikka ja jatkuva vaalivilppi ovat ajaneet EU:n Venäjä-politiikan kriisiin. Näin arvioi europarlamentin ihmisoikeusalivaliokuntaa johtava Heidi Hautala. Ulkopoliittisessa instituutissa julkaistu tuore tutkimus on samoilla linjoilla. Suomalais-venäläisen kansalaisfoorumin järjestämässä keskustelutilaisuudessa perjantaina 22.01.2010 puhuttiin Pohjois-Kaukasian tilanteesta.

Moscow was able to consolidate its domestic authority and assert itself globally during Russia’s economic boom, but economic, security, and governance crises have shaken the regime's confidence, according to a policy paper by Sam Greene and Dmitry Trenin of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"As the Kremlin centralized power, leaders cut themselves off from public feedback, leading to a disconnect between realities and several disastrous policy initiatives. While the Kremlin is slowly opening to outside opinions, it must rebuild trust among officials and nongovernmental experts if it is to revive a true dialogue," the authors contend.

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=24658